Wednesday, June 9, 2010

California Election Primaries,


1:46 p.m.: We call it a night here. It seems that Angle is gone and will attract the Republican candidate in Nevada - Harry Reid's dream scenario. (Of course, given what a terrible campaign that she made, you could argue that Lowden may be as beat-able.) We are all much rain tonight or tomorrow at the Salon.

11:27 p.m.: The nice thing now shifts to Nevada and California. Although California looks academic though, with four percent of the vote in, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman, the two opened a huge lead - more than 100,000 votes - in their GOP primaries. The Nevada GOP Senate primary is the real barn-burner. With 15 percent of the vote in, Sharron Angle is three points ahead of Sue Lowden, who (at least an early stage) is faring better than most expected. Danny Tarkanian, who had caught Lowden for the second in a series of pre-polls, is a distant third with about 20 percent.

11:07 p.m.: Like you have probably seen now, Blanche Lincoln has been declared the winner. (Keith Olbermann actually the announcement by interrupting a guest who was trying to say that there are still many outstanding voting and that weight is still a chance.) Lincoln will clearly the underdog in November against Republican John Boozman. But who knows now? Nobody thought they survive tonight.

22:42: This feels a bit like Hillary / Obama in New Hampshire again. I just need to assure people Halter me to hear that the student areas are still not home

10:38 p.m.: The Cook Political Report, an analyst Dave Wasserman (who tracks House races for Cook, but is generally quite sharp on the elections of data in a sort of election) tells his Twitter followers that he thinks Blanche Lincoln will stick to a good Bill Halter, Arkansas. Halter had previously gone ahead after only returns came from Pulaski County, but Wasserman notes that the numbers appear incorrectly reported by the AP (and in fact the latest updates on Politico-tracking site for future Lincoln, 51 , 2 to 48.8 percent). At several places is better than Lincoln, in the primary 5.18.

Does the enormous expenditures of Lincoln unions help themselves into the embattled Arkansan, under fire from the powerful outside forces that control Washington? In essence, the past few weeks, where Lincoln tried the outsider mantle Halter - not a trifle, for an incumbent seeking third Senate term six years.

22:36: That did not last long. Lincoln regained the lead and is now 4500 votes, with about two thirds of the reporting area. Pulaski County, the state's largest county (home of Little Rock), seems crucial. You can keep track of the province back.

10:28 p.m.: For the first time tonight, Bill Halter for Arkansas pulled into the future. With slightly less than 60 percent of the reporting area, he leads by about 3,000 votes - a 51-49 percent spread.

10:24 p.m.: Chris Matthews says strange things sometimes, but it is not difficult to endorse its line precisely at Orly Taitz, the Birther-in-Chief, who will be California Secretary of State (presumably so she can do some serious Loony search for her ammunition to prove that President Obama was actually born on Mars): "There is something crazy about this person."

10:14 p.m.: Lincoln's lead was cut to two points now, 45 percent of the vote in.

10:02 p.m.: Polls in Nevada are still closed. And Halter, Arkansas is drawing nearer - he trails by 4,000 votes (a margin of about 4 percent) with just under 40% of the votes in.

9:47 p.m.: I wonder if Gresham Barrett will end up pulling an Anthony Weiner here.

Weiner, you may remember, was (initially) considered in a democratic outlet for mayor of New York back to participate in '05, when the preliminary vote leader, Fernando Ferrer ended just a sliver short of the magic 40 % number. He realized that he probably was doomed to a drain, Weiner declined further to compete, says he wanted the party to unite. The trick he netted some friendly headlines and goodwill within the party, which offered more long-term value than a futile Weiner runoff campaign would have two weeks. (Weiner After his move, a new table Ferrer put more than 40%, so move officially ended Weiner made no sense.)

Barrett is also doomed in South Carolina. The AP is now stating that Nikki Haley will finish just shy of 50% in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Barrett is a very distant second, with 21% now. He has essentially no chance for a runoff. Why not now and look magnanimous?

9:36 p.m.: When tracking the results in Arkansas, here are some of the counties that you want to watch, according to Janine Parry, a political science professor at the University of Arkansas and director of the Arkansas School Poll. View Washington County - in the northwest corner, where Fayetteville and the university - and near Benton County, Lincoln won both the major record 05.18, and detail to its margins to match well done tonight. The really big area all look is Pulaski County, home of Little Rock, and the seven surrounding counties. Pulaski Lincoln won 52-39 last month, and DC Morrison took nearly 8 percent. In fact, all Lincoln Little Rock area counties won by relatively large margins lately - and if they do not do the same again tonight, she's in trouble.

Unfortunately, for now, the results are trickling in too slowly to get to know much. At 9:36 p.m., for instance, was Lincoln's leading weight in Washington County - by a count of 687-567.

9:34 p.m.: About 10 percent of the vote and Blanche Lincoln is now used by more than six Bill Halter, Arkansas. Ed Schultz might be nervous.

21:21: A nail-biter in South Carolina. Not between Nikki Haley and one of her opponents, though, but between Haley and the magic threshold of 50%. Two-thirds of the votes counted, she sitting at 48.4%, - still not enough to avoid a second round, but she was better than earlier. If it does fall short of 50%, it seems that Rep. Gresham Barrett, who now has a 10,000-vote lead in the race for second place, it will drain opponent.

21:00: Earlier I said to keep an eye on New Jersey 3rd District, where Republicans have high hopes of ousting freshman Democrat John Adler in the autumn. This is exactly the kind of neighborhood they need to win if they take back the House. But with 25% of the primary vote in the GOP, the party establishment candidates - ex-Philadelphia Eagles lineman Jon Runyan - the head of his enemy, Justin Murphy, with only ten points. This despite the fact that Murphy $ 13,000 for this campaign, to Runyan's $ 225,000.

8:57 p.m.: On MSNBC, Keith Olbermann's interview with correspondent Lawrence O'Donnell, who is in the NBC News Los Angeles bureau, whether Orly Taitz, the GOP nomination for California secretary of state to win. In the background, though, the TV newsroom is very clearly show ABC coverage of the NBA Finals. Which, if more election results start coming in not fast, I'd be tempted to emulate, as well.

8:47 p.m.: Returns from Arkansas are beginning to come very slowly.

8:39 p.m.: Rep. Tom Graves is on its way to Congress, winning a special election for a seat in Georgia House Rep. Nathan Deal vacated by resignation to run for governor. The only real news is there, but is the actual name of the Republican who won the seat - the Democratic candidate in the race, Mike Freeman, had been disabled in an earlier vote last month. (None of the six Republicans, nor the only independent, the race was 50 percent, sending it to a drain.)

20:30: One of the most heavily targeted freshman Democrats in the House, Rep. Tom Perriello, who now knows he will face in November. Republicans in Congress nominated its fifth District Virginia Senator Robert Hurt, who already represents one third of voters in Perriello Richmond. The GOP was enthusiastic about the success, the National Republican Congressional Committee aides e-mailing reporters to call Hurt a top Republican recruit. "

But independent Jeff Clark, turn left Hurt, plans for a Tea Party-inspired campaign for the seat rotate. And the GOP has to consolidate after a bitter, divisive, which saw five primary candidates running. Virginia Democrats tried to play their own vulnerabilities Hurt's after he won the nomination, some conservatives in the state have not forgotten to Hurt vote to raise taxes a few years ago. "Tonight, 5th District Republicans nominated a career politician with a record of saying anything to get elected as their candidate for Congress, the Virginia Democratic Party e-mail reporters. That's at least a part spider, focusing on November, but expect the same kind of thing heard so far - mainly because Perriello has allowed himself to appear on the voters to tell them what they need to hear, not always what they want to hear.

8:20 p.m.: About 20 percent of the votes are counted in South Carolina. It is clear that Nikki Haley will end on the first place, she is now at 43 percent, exactly where the last polls had her. But it is also looking like it will be short of 50 percent, the number they need to avoid a runoff. Gresham Barrett, a four-term congressman, is second with 25 percent, but yields so far appear to be disproportionately from his neck of the woods. Attorney General Henry McMaster was third with 18 percent now.

8:04 p.m.: Polls now closed in Maine and New Jersey.

In Maine, both parties are wide open with gubernatorial elections. 7 Republicans and Democrats are fighting 4 John Baldacci, the term is limited to replace. A recent poll found no one in either party primary elections over 20 percent.

In New Jersey, there are a few House elections for a visit. The most interesting in the South Jersey-based 3rd District, a historically Republican jurisdiction that was won - narrowly - by Democrat John Adler in 2008. Jon Runyan, a former Philadelphia Eagles player, is expected to win the GOP nod, but his fund-raising is overwhelming. His main foe, Justin Murphy, has even less money, but performed surprisingly well in the '08 Republican primary. Runyan should win, but his margin will tell.

There is also a GOP primary in the Shore area 6th District, which has 22 years represented by Democrat Frank Pallone. Pallone should be safe in the fall, but Diane Gooch, a self-funding millionaire, he could fit. But Gooch must first pass Little Anna, a small town mayor and former county official who tries to Tea Party support channel.

19:53: The interview on Hardball (one of the five band show, I think) is about Carly Fiorina's decision to run as a pro-life candidate in California. Matthews does not get it - California is very liberal culture, he notes, so this will not murder her in the general election? I get the logic, but I can not help thinking of New Jersey, another bastion of social liberalism where long been assumed that the GOP could win only with pro-choicers. And yet Chris Christie can run as a pro-lifer last autumn and the second largest margin for a Republican wins in 37 years. There are a lot of reasons why Fiorina, assuming she wins the GOP nod tonight, might lose in the fall against Barbara Boxer. I'm just not sure, abortion is one of them. Maybe in a different climate, but not right now.

7:06 p.m.: Primary voters are casting ballots in 12 states today, and we are here tonight to track all returns. The biggest news at this hour that the polls are closed in South Carolina, where Nikki Haley expected to finish in the first four-way gubernatorial primary GOP. The tension is whether it will mark the 50 percent needed to avoid crack half round - and if they are not from her opponents will advance to her face in the 22/06 drainage.

For now, things are quiet. Polls in Arkansas, Nevada and California - where the days of the marquee Senate races take place - will not be closed until later. The best source for keeping the numbers as they come in the elections is probably the interactive map of Politico.

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